Models for Estimating the Diver Population of the United States: An Assessment

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Models for Estimating the Diver Population of the United States: An Assessment

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Title: Models for Estimating the Diver Population of the United States: An Assessment
Author: Hornsby, A
Abstract: The debate over the diver population in the United States is a significant and difficult issue, especially as it relates to the establishment of a reliable fatality rate for diving. The primary cause of this difficulty is the lack of a unified model in place for consistently discussing such a population. Part of the problem is that even the definition of this population varies; it has also been made even more difficult through arguments that the diver population has been overstated by the dive industry. The publication of such positions and the various assumptions supporting them have been more frequently (but not necessarily more appropriately) referenced in medical and scientific literature concerning the diver population and fatality rates. The purpose of the assessment reported by this paper is to compare the assumptions of the debates questioning the historical U.S. diver population estimates to the empirically derived population model developed by the National Underwater Accident Data Center (NUADC–McAniff), from which the estimates were originally derived. The goal was to determine which estimate methodology is the most credible for application to medical and scientific literature. An examination of the common debates’ arguments and assumptions found that they typically lacked empirical bases and applied flawed assumptions; the NUADC model, by contrast, was found to have strong empirical bases and independent empirical support.
Description: Copyright © 2011 by Divers Alert Network, 6 West Colony Place Durham, NC 27705. This book is available for download at no cost as a PDF file from the Divers Alert Network website (http://www.DiversAlertNetwork.org/). Opinions and data presented at the Conference and in these Proceedings are those of the contributors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Divers Alert Network.
URI: http://archive.rubicon-foundation.org/9389
Date: 2011

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